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Comments: Polymarket now says there a 55% chance if negotiations vs 45%. One week ago odds were 20-80 ![[KhKDdBV]](https://i.imgur.com/KhKDdBV.jpeg)
Comments: And the worst part is that the "leader" just goes quiet after each of these.
Comments: was it on again off again like this? I mean we had the green, zan zendegi azadi, and this movement. Each one just a couple of days and then nothing for a long time.
Comments: There are very few, if any scenarios in which this regime disappears without massive bloodshed! SIMMERING ANGER, 'DANGER OF BLOODSHED' Analysts and insiders say that while the streets are quiet for now, deep-seated grievances have not gone away. Public frustration has been simmering over economic decline, political repression, a widening gulf between rich and poor, and entrenched corruption that leaves many Iranians feeling trapped in a system offering neither relief nor a path forward. "This may not be the end, but it is no longer just the beginning," said Hossein Rassam, a London-based analyst. If protests resume during mounting foreign pressure and security forces respond with force, the six current and former officials said they fear demonstrators would be bolder than in previous unrest, emboldened by experience and driven by a sense that they have little left to lose. One of the officials told Reuters that while people were angrier than before, the establishment would use harsher methods against protesters if it was under U.S. attack. He said the result would be a bloodbath. Ordinary Iranians contacted by Reuters said they expected Iran's rulers to crack down hard on any further protests. A Tehran resident whose 15-year-old son was killed in the protests on January 9 said the demonstrators had merely sought a normal life, and had been answered "with bullets.” "If America attacks, I will go back to the streets to take revenge for my son and the children this regime killed.”
Comments: Yes and no! The west pushed Khomeini without people knowing what they are getting. The difference was that Shah was not ready for that. He tried to fight but he was not willing to kill thousands or hundreds of thousands to save himself. This regime knows very well how it could go if they don’t fight as hard as they can. Killing millions is not going to stop them.
Comments: Friends I do not know how the last revolution went but I feel this one is going sideways. There are no real leaders and the only one around is being pushed in by other countries not the people. Was the last one like this too?
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Comments: Iranian people are stuck between a narcissistic Trump, ruthless Akhunds and useless EU, Russia and China. No one gives a flying fuck for them. Out of desperation, they are looking for anyone who can help them. There is no help coming from outside. I really don’t know how they can help themselves either. How do they deal with this is beyond my comprehension!!!
Comments: Iran played their best futsal so far and beat a good AFG team 5-2. They play UZB tonight(10PM PST) in the quarter finals. Last time around Iran had a very tough match against them in the semis and ended up beating them in penalties. BTW, I hope AFG beats JPN in their game ![[biggrin]](https://cdn.websitetoolbox.com/images/boards/smilies/biggrin.gif "Big Grin - :D")
Comments: It’s a trend that every earthquake might be related to nuclear testing in Iran. Funny enough, it’s really easy to verify that. Either way, that wasn’t a test based on science!
Comments: Did Iran’s nuclear test trigger a quake? 5.2 shock rocks Bushehr amid US war fears
Comments: این " آقای " محمد صادقی داستانش جالبه . سال ۱۴۰۱ در جریان زن زندگی آزادی رفتن دره خونش برای بازداشت , کون لخت از پنجره آویزون شد که در بره. آتش نشانی کمکش کرد نیفته . چند وقت بعد از ایران خارج شد رفت اروپا و کشف جنسیت کرد و گفت من ن زنم ن مردم . خلاصه کلام مقادیر متنابهی اوسکوله ![[01000000-0aff-0242-4ea6-08db861757dd_cx1_cy49_cw89_w1080_h608]](https://gdb.rferl.org/01000000-0aff-0242-4ea6-08db861757dd_cx1_cy49_cw89_w1080_h608.jpg) ![[%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF+%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%82%DB%8C]](https://cdn.rokna.net/servev2/GE1Y1lLpgI7M/Db2f077dXpA,/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF+%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%82%DB%8C.png)
Comments: As far as I can gather, this is how it was during Mossadegh's time with ShabAn bimokh leading the charge.
Comments: https://x.com/ehsan_hoza/status/2018121855354183876 The worst part is more n more idiots (arazel va obash) coming out sounding more n more fascist than ever. This would be sight to see if they take power
Comments: Holy crap Reza: 843 million tweets ![[eek]](https://cdn.websitetoolbox.com/images/boards/smilies/eek.gif "Eek - :eek:") This is called raising one unqualified candidate and burying the legitimate ones under the avalanche.
Comments: https://x.com/sprinterpress/status/2018107951152496933 Meanwhile if there ever was a doubt that 1/4 Pahlavi is sponsored and pushed by Israel, here is concrete evidence appearing in Le Monde
Comments: A lot more pain, if you ask me. The scary part is that all those who are arguing for an externally forced regime change talk about it as if it is a guaranteed thing. IMO people are only thinking of the best case scenario. but a war could go in many different ways and most of the possible outcomes could inflict a lot more pain in the people than they are experiencing now. Here is my worst case scenario: They bomb for some time and realize what we all know. Namely, you cannot do regime change from the skies. By this point, I would estimate thousands of innocent people dead already. So, then it will be time for boots on the ground. USA will not do this. It is the last thing Trump wants to get in. Israel does not have the man power. So, the only option left will be arming a bunch of people and starting a guerilla war that quickly expands to a civil war, if Russia keeps Sepah together. By this point, we have tens of thousands dead and most of the country's infrastructure gone. After this point we will reach a steady state stalemate where essentially different groups are controlling different parts of the country with well over hundreds of thousands dead.
We are then looking at Tajziyeh. IMO, this is the real Israeli objective. Not regime change.
Comments: Both sides are buying time and Iranians are paying for it with their lives and money. Let’s agree Trump is the best and say it loud and clear. Maybe then we can help the people. How much pain can these guys give the people? How long before we go back to “normal”, whatever it means for our country?
Comments: I am not sure regime change was ever on the agenda. People wanted it to be but that was wishful thinking. Then there are people in the west that use regime change as a scare crow. If you are after regime change, you first hit the leader which they never did. This has been my issue: the gap between people's expectation and what the US actually wants to do.
I also agree that negotiations in reality is pointless. They already had an agreement much better than what he will get now. But he threw it away. If they are actually negotiation for no nuclear weapons, IRI will gladly agree to that and that is what they have been promising all along. So, Trump has achieved nothing! This is either a ploy to surprise IRI with an attack or a Deal that Trump can say is much better than Obama's deal! Sad
Comments: Negotiations are ongoing! I don’t get what is to be negotiated. The big guys agreed on a deal over 10 years ago and it was thrown out by one guy. They bombed the shit of Iran and got some back as well. Iran has been told multiple times what they can and can’t do. Ships and planes are all over the area, ready to do it again. What is the negotiating process? Regime change seems to be out. Basically, don’t build an atomic bomb and stop acting like big boys and we will ease sanctions. They might as well just reprint the old agreement, change the date, the name from Obama to Trump and move on. How much time does it take to get it done? It’s not like Iran has much to say after all its friends gone, economy is gone and people are dying every day. |
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