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Comments: One note on oil prices. There are 2 prices that are usually active. One is the future price and the other less mentioned is the spot oil price. The future price is like stock options. When you buy it the supplier promises physical delivery to you, usually in 3 months, at the agreed price. That's the one that is widely quoted now and it's around $110/barrel at the momoent. The spot price is for immediate delivery. That is I need 5000 barrels delivered tomorrow what's the price? That price is currently well above $120/barrel in Dubai and $150/barrel in Oman. ![[Us7OUJIqc4_1083x475]](https://image.cls.cn/images/20260318/Us7OUJIqc4_1083x475.png)
Comments: Every time I tell myself, it could not get worse, it does. Now both sides going after oil and gas infrastructures which US/Israel started. It’s really bad for all but much worse for Iranians. I can see no gas, electricity and water in coming days/weeks in Iran. We all complain about gas prices going higher and that is a real issue but Iranians are going to be cut off from any source of energy rather soon. If the calculation was to get people more desperate, it might work this time. Signs of desperation are showing in U.S. and Israel as well. They banked on a short war with IRI falling apart without a leader. This could get really ugly…
Comments: Thank you, Dr. Faramarz! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKdMJW5PPq4
Comments: Five years imprisonment in Israel for photographing an Iranian missile.
Comments: Pesperctives, excellent perspectives!!! Good analysis.
Comments: So head of mossad was replaced n announced today. Rumors must’ve been true. IR hit them n died in the bunker
Comments: Gentlemen, This eye for an eye shit is going to destroy our motherland. I hate the regime with passion but also I can’t stand these taze be doran resideh idiots who playing war drums as if this is what the country needed. In any event, my suspicion is we will not see a democratic country in our life time and even worse, it will be most likely more backward and extremist
Comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFG3CFRyOeA
Comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjtVvpbdMYA
Comments: آقا شاهد دمت گرم عجب عکسی چاپ کردی کلی حال کردم
Comments: ![[HDTpwqdaMAIqOKq]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDTpwqdaMAIqOKq.jpg)
Comments: Iranian authorities have announced hundreds more arrests across the country, as well as operations to counter what they describe as “traitors” aligned with the interests of the United States and Israel. The Ministry of Intelligence said in a statement that 111 “pro-monarchy cells” in 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces were stopped overnight into Wednesday from launching acts opposing the country’s theocratic establishment that toppled a US-backed monarchy in a 1979 Islamic revolution.
Comments: Israel hit busher gas facilities- no more electricity in Iran, welcome to surgical strikes against the regime only. This is new escalation and Iran is promising to hit all GCC countries including KSA 😔
Comments: Whoever this guy is he’s singing my song. Read this it’s worth it Conversation از علی خامنه‌ای تا رضا پهلوی، از ونکورنشین رقصان تا کودک تهرانی لرزان، از سلطنت طلب تا بسیجی و از اینترنشنال تا صداوسیما، ما همه باختیم، بدم باختیم... وقتی غبار مرگبار این جنگ فرو بشینه و قضاوتها بیان سراغ ویرانه‌های وطن، دیگه فرقی نمی‌کنه کی کدوم طرف این تراژدی وایساده بود. حقیقت عریان اینه که هیچ ایرانی برنده از این جنگ بیرون نیومد. ما همه باختیم.  خامنه‌ای، لاریجانی و شمخانی و بقیه باختن؛ چون وطن رو ویران کردن،مردم رو کشتن، چیزی جز فساد و استبداد و توهم از خودشون باقی نزاشتن و در نهایت هم با مرگشون، نه فقط قدرت که تمام اون رویاهای پوشالی اقتدار رو تو گوری دفن کردن که خودشون برای خودشون و این جغرافیای ماتم زده کنده بودن.  رضا پهلوی هم باخت، آویزون شدن به بیگانه برای رسیدن به قدرت و فرستادن مردم تو مسلخی که براش برنامه ای نداشت و در نهایت هم احتمال رهبری بر سرزمینی که زیرساخت‌هاش شخم زده شده و مردمانش تو سوگ و فقر و فلاکت غرق شدن، چیزی جز یه کابوس تلخ سیاسی نیست. اون حتی اگه پیروز هم بشه شاه سرزمینی شدن که دیگه واقعا چیزی جز غم و سوگ و خشم و کینه و انتقام ازش باقی نمونده!  سپاه هم باخت، اونا تو توهم این بودن که می تونن تلاویو و پایگاه های آمریکا رو با خاک یکسان کنن و با این کار یه بازدارندگی ابدی بسازن، اما تهش چی شد، نه تنها تمام فرمانده های کلیدی شون رو دونه دونه از دست دادن، بلکه با اون ادعاهای مسخره و پوشالی، حتی نتونستن امنیت اولیه خودشون رو هم تامین کنن. آسمان کشور تبدیل شد به اتوبان پهپادها و جنگنده های دشمن و سران جمهوری اسلامی، از خامنه ای گرفته تا بقیه، شدن سیبل تمرین شکار اسراییل، انگار موساد داشت نیروهای کارآموزش رو با زدن اونا آموزش می داد. تمام زیرساخت هسته ای و موشکی و نظامی هم نابود شد. چیزی که ۳۵ سال ایران رو به خاطرش تحت تحریم قرار دادن و چند تریلیون دلار ضرر مستقیم و غیرمستقیم به کشور زد ظرف ۲۰ روز نابود شد! دستاوردشون هم نهایتا پرتاب چند تا موشک به اسراییل و کشورهای عربی و گرون کردن ۲۰ - ۳۰ دلاری نفت برای چند هفته بود!  اپوزوسیون هم باخت، اپوزیسیونی که خیال می‌کرد آزادی از لوله تفنگ بیگانه بیرون میآد و جمهوری اسلامی سریع سقوط می کنه و بعد رضا پهلوی یا هر کس دیگه ای میاد و ایران تبدیل به بهشت برین میشه!. اون خارج نشینی که دور از آتیش، برای بمباران خونه و مردمش می‌رقصید و قر می‌داد، حالا بی وطن‌ترین آدم روی زمینه، اون در ازای ویرانی خانه‌اش، فقط چند لحظه لذت کاذب از انتقام نصیبش شد.  بچه بسیجی و بچه هیئتی مخلص و معتقد هم باخت. بد هم باخت. اون بسیجی و هیئتی که صادقانه پای عقیده‌اش وایساده بود و فکر می کرد جمهوری اسلامی ابرقدرت منطقه و جهان شده ظرف ۲۰ روز با حقیقت وحشتناکی روبرو شد. جمهوری اسلامی فقط ببر کاعذی و خانه ای پوشالی بود. دلش به کسانی خوش بود که حتی نتونستن از خودشون مراقبت کنن و فقط متوهمانه عربده می کشیدن. حالا می‌بینه که تمام اون ایثارها، اعتقادات و مقابل مردم وایسادنها خرج بقای سیستمی شد که در نهایت کشور رو با خودش به قعر دره برد و همه چیو نابود کرد.  اون سلطنت‌طلبی که ۱۸ و ۱۹ دی ماه با هزار امید اومد بیرون و به فراخوان کسی مثل رضا پهلوی گوش کرد ( که خودش تو ویلای مریلند امن و امان نشسته بود و مردم رو اینجا قربانی قدرت طلبی خودش می کرد و تهش هم بهشون می گفت #تلفات_جنگی ! ) آخرش هم کشته شد هم باخت. خون اون قرار بود بذر آزادی باشه، ولی شد ابزار قدرت طلبی رضا پهلوی و هیزم آتیش نابودی کل یه ملت.  اینترنشنال و منوتو هم باختن. اونا رسانه رو تبدیل کردن به ابزار پروپاگاندا و میدون انتقام و بلندگوی موساد و بی بی شدن و جوری از جنگ حرف می‌زدن که انگار دارن یه بازی کامپیوتری رو گزارش می‌کنن که تهش به یه بهشت ختم میشه. اونا باختن چون توی اون استودیوهای شیک، یادشون رفت که ایران یه خبر فوری نیست، یه تیکه از جونه. اونا باختن چون به جای آگاهی، فقط بنزین ریختن روی آتیش و حالا خودشون هم شدن رسانه‌های یه سرزمین مرده. اونا دیگه مخاطبی ندارن که براش رویاهای کاذب بفروشن و تو تاریخ به عنوان کسایی ثبت شدن که از دور نشستن و برای سوختن خونه شون هلهله کردن، اونا حالا بی‌وطن‌تر از همیشه هستن.  مظلومانه ترین باخت هم سهم بچه‌های مدرسه‌ای میناب بود. نسلی مظلوم و طفلکی که تو دنیایی بیدار شد که نه آینده‌ای داشت و نه امیدی و در فقر چند سال زندگی کرد و در نهایتم چشمش با یه موشک آمریکایی تو ۷ - ۸ سالگی برای همیشه روی این دنیا و آرزوهایی که می تونستن عملی کنه و امیدهایی که تو دلهاشون داشتن بسته شد.  به نظرم، اما تلخ‌ترین و سیاه ترین باخت، سهم مردم عادی شد، همون‌هایی که نه سر پیاز بودن و نه ته پیاز، اونا نه دنبال خامنه‌ای بودن و نه دل به پهلوی بسته بودن، اونا فقط یه زندگی نرمال می‌خواستن، یه سقف امن، یه سفره نون و یه لبخند که از ته دل باشه ولی حالا باید تو یه مملکت ویران، با آینده‌ای که از شب هم سیاه‌تره، دنبال جنازه‌ی آرزوهاشون بگردن. اونا هیچ طرفی نبودن، اما حالا وسط آوارها، دارن تقاص توهمات و جنگ طلبی‌های بقیه رو پس میدن، اونا باختن چون دیگه حتی رویای یه زندگی معمولی هم براشون دست‌نیافتنی شده و باید تو این برهوت، تا دهه‌ها فقط مرثیه بخونن. به نظرم ایران نابود شد و این یه شعار نیست. بازسازی روح زخمی این ملت و شهرهای نابود شده، شاید نیم قرن زمان ببره. ما همه تو کندن گوری به نام ویرانی ایران شریک شدیم؛ چه اون که جانم فدای رهبر می‌گفت و چه اون که جاوید شاه گفت، چه اونی که برای که برای فروپاشی هلهله می‌کرد و چه منی که فکر می کردم با کشته شدن خامنه‌ای همه چی تموم میشه. بدبختانه از امروز، ما میراث‌دار خاکستری هستیم که تا دهه‌ها دیگه هیچ لبخندی رو واقعی نمی‌کنه. https://x.com/abornaei/status/2034214519191261362
Comments: And the response: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAEIran's state television published a threat Wednesday saying that the Islamic Republic would attack oil and gas infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the next few hours. It threatened Saudi Arabia's Samref Refinery and its Jubail Petrochemical Complex, as well as the UAE's Al Hasan Gas Field, and the petrochemical plants and a refinery in Qatar. It warned all employees and residents in the areas to evacuate immediately. The threat – which resembled other attack warnings put out by Iran during the war, copying the style used by the Israeli military – comes after Iran said its South Pars gas field and associated infrastructure was attacked earlier Wednesday. Firefighters on-site worked to contain the blaze, and there was no immediate report on if anyone had been hurt. The attack on South Pars field involved Phases 3, 4, 5 and 6, Iranian state TV reported. They blamed Israel and the U.S. for the attack. It said it had shut down those phases of the field to stop the spreading fire.
Comments: Looks like Israel is going after the oil infrastructure now: Qatar says Israeli attack on Iranian oil field "dangerous and irresponsible"The spokesman for Qatar's foreign ministry lambasted Israel for apparently targeting an Iranian oil field on Wednesday as "dangerous and irresponsible" and a "threat to global energy security, as well as to the peoples of the region & its environment." Israeli "targeting of facilities linked to Iran's South Pars field, an extension of Qatar's North Field, is a dangerous & irresponsible step amid the current military escalation in the region," said Majed al-Ansari, who is also a senior advisor to Qatar's leader and a longtime prominent figure in the Gulf state's government. "We reiterate, as we have repeatedly emphasized, the necessity of avoiding the targeting of vital facilities," al Ansari said in a statement posted in both English and Arabic on social media. "We call on all parties to exercise restraint, adhere to international law, & work toward de-escalation in a manner that preserves the security & stability of the region."
Comments:
Comments: Israel says Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib is among senior ministry officials killed in an overnight Israeli attack in Tehran. There has been no comment from Iran yet. Khatib’s killing would cause a dent in Iranian power structure By Mohammed Vall Reporting from Tehran In terms of his position within the power structure, Khatib ticked every box. He was a graduate of Qom, and one of his teachers was the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So he was really one of the top scholars. He also held the title of Hujjat al-Islam, which means “the proof of Islam”. That is one of the highest religious titles in the country. So he was very well placed religiously and ideologically, and he also had decades of experience in intelligence circles, particularly in civilian intelligence. He was seen by the Israelis and many others as a hardliner. One of his goals was to crack down on corruption inside government institutions. His alleged killing will no doubt cause a dent in the remaining power structure of the government. That is what the Israelis are capitalising on, what they are counting on – removing every single individual who can be of interest or importance, or who can play a role in solidifying and maintaining the existence of this government.
Comments: French General Michel Yakovleff just compared joining Trump's Iran war to "buying cheap tickets for the Titanic" after it already hit the iceberg. And then it got even worse for Trump. Yakovleff is no random talking head. He's a three-star general, former commander of the legendary French Foreign Legion, and held senior positions within NATO itself. He is one of the most respected military voices in France and regularly weighs in on matters of international security. So when he was asked about Trump's desperate pleas for Europe to join his Iran catastrophe, his answer carried serious weight. He didn't mince words. He laid out five distinct reasons why every European nation should flatly refuse. And each one is more damaging than the last. First, Trump doesn't understand how NATO actually works. You don't get to launch your own unilateral bombing campaign and then invite allies to run a separate operation underneath you. That's not how alliances function. If Trump wants NATO involved, NATO takes command. One operation, one flag, one chain of command. "I don't think he understood that," Yakovleff said. That alone is a devastating indictment of a man who claims to be the greatest dealmaker on earth . Second, nobody knows what the actual strategic goals are. Beyond forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, what is the endgame? Regime change? Containment? A negotiated settlement? Trump hasn't said. He apparently can't say, because he doesn't know himself. Third, and this one is particularly brutal, you can't coordinate a multinational military campaign through tweets that change every two minutes. If allied nations are going to put their soldiers in harm's way, they need explicit, written objectives from the United States. As Yakovleff put it, "It's going to be necessary for Trump himself to know what he wants." The quiet contempt in that sentence could strip paint off a wall. Fourth, there is the fundamental issue of trust. Trump has abandoned allies before and everyone knows he would do it again without hesitation the moment it became politically useful. The Kurds know it. The Afghans know it. Europe knows it. "He would let us down whenever it suited him," the general said. Why would any nation put troops on the line for a leader with that track record? And fifth, the knockout punch. Yakovleff cited a principle he said he learned at the U.S. Army War College: "You don't reinforce failure. You move on. You find something else." A decorated French general is using American military doctrine, taught in American war colleges, to explain to the world why following this American president into battle would be strategic malpractice. The global response has been just as damning. Japan said no. Australia said no. The United Kingdom said no. The European Union said no. Meanwhile, Iranian missiles and drones have made the Strait of Hormuz so dangerous that insurance companies won't cover oil tankers passing through it. Twenty percent of the world's petroleum normally flows through that strait. Oil prices are skyrocketing and consumers everywhere are feeling it. Trump started this. He escalated it. He isolated America from its allies in the process.
Comments: Very good analysis but scares the shit out of me. It says that Israel will most likely use nukes. And that if A US ship is sunk Trump is crazy enough to also do that. |
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