Yoav Gallant sends a private message to Ali Khamenei in Hebrew; "להתראות"

Iran saw the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza as a strategic reset for the Middle East. It meant the return of the Palestinians’ plight to center stage, and the regional and global reaction to the war quickly created a diplomatic quandary for Israel. Since the initial attack by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, Tehran and its allies in the so-called axis of resistance have sought to deepen this quandary while avoiding a larger regional war that could bring Iran into direct confrontation with the United States.

Israel, by contrast, wants to break out of its quandary by expanding the Gaza war and putting Iran and the United States on a collision course. The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East to support Israel against attacks by Iran and Hezbollah. And Washington will enter the fray in Israel’s corner if the confrontation between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran escalates into open warfare.

Tehran concluded that the killing of Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran, and then the assassination of Nasrallah in his Beirut stronghold, were aimed at baiting Iran into that trap. Since Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s dilemma has been how to continue its strategy without playing into Israel’s hands. It decided not to react to Haniyeh’s assassination, but it could not do that when Nasrallah was killed.

Hezbollah is Iran’s most important regional ally, and Tehran feels compelled to protect what remains of it. Furthermore, Nasrallah enjoyed vast influence in the Arab world and was both the mastermind and critical linchpin in the network of proxies that undergird Iran’s regional influence. His assassination was a blow to Iran; not responding to it would constitute a legitimacy crisis for the Islamic Republic.

Israel’s audacious blitzkrieg to destroy Hezbollah, starting with the explosions of hundreds of pagers on Sept. 17 and culminating in Nasrallah’s assassination—and now a ground invasion—showed that Israel was confident about gaining the upper hand. Iran could not afford to let that image stand unchallenged.

Tehran’s inaction had led to a widespread condemnation of the Iranian government, both from constituencies in the Arab world that are usually sympathetic to Iran as well as inside Iran, especially among hard-liners who support the country’s regional policies. The angry accusations of abandoning Hezbollah and folding before Israeli pressure came as a shock and put pressure on the Iranian leadership to act. Tuesday’s missile attack was a risky maneuver, but it was not a knee-jerk reaction. It reflects a more complex calculation in Tehran.

Iran wanted to show that it has both the audacity and capability to strike Israel. But it also wished to demonstrate, as the tenor of the coverage that it promotes in official and sympathetic media as well as social media shows, that it is the only country in the Middle East that is willing to confront Israel head-on. This could win accolades on the Arab street, but it will likely invite a level of Israeli retaliation that could lead to the very war that Iran has thus far hoped to avoid.

Iran’s response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus in April—which involved launching approximately 300 drones and missiles against Israel—did not deter further Israeli escalations that came in the form of the subsequent assassinations of Haniyeh and Nasrallah. And this latest missile attack is unlikely to definitively deter Israel either.

The most proximate reason for this latest attack was retaliation. Iran claimed that it was responding to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and the more recent killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Beirut. Beyond exacting retribution, Tehran likely hoped to establish a measure of deterrence against Israeli bullishness after a series of spectacular military and intelligence successes in Lebanon that has gravely damaged Hezbollah.

Exacting retribution is, however, a perilous gamble, as it will likely be followed by a forceful Israeli reprisal and a costly spiral into a full conflict with Israel and the United States.

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